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Creators/Authors contains: "Stephens, Britton B"

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  1. We present improved estimates of air–sea CO2exchange over three latitude bands of the Southern Ocean using atmospheric CO2measurements from global airborne campaigns and an atmospheric 4-box inverse model based on a mass-indexed isentropic coordinate (Mθe). These flux estimates show two features not clearly resolved in previous estimates based on inverting surface CO2measurements: a weak winter-time outgassing in the polar region and a sharp phase transition of the seasonal flux cycles between polar/subpolar and subtropical regions. The estimates suggest much stronger summer-time uptake in the polar/subpolar regions than estimates derived through neural-network interpolation of pCO2data obtained with profiling floats but somewhat weaker uptake than a recent study by Long et al. [Science374, 1275–1280 (2021)], who used the same airborne data and multiple atmospheric transport models (ATMs) to constrain surface fluxes. Our study also uses moist static energy (MSE) budgets from reanalyses to show that most ATMs tend to have excessive diabatic mixing (transport across moist isentrope, θe, or Mθesurfaces) at high southern latitudes in the austral summer, which leads to biases in estimates of air–sea CO2exchange. Furthermore, we show that the MSE-based constraint is consistent with an independent constraint on atmospheric mixing based on combining airborne and surface CO2observations. 
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  2. Abstract Seasonal change of atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ∼ O2 + CO2) is a tracer for air‐sea O2flux with little sensitivity to the terrestrial exchange of O2and CO2. In this study, we present the tropospheric distribution and inventory of APO in each hemisphere with seasonal resolution, using O2and CO2measurements from discrete airborne campaigns between 2009 and 2018. The airborne data are represented on a mass‐weighted isentropic coordinate (Mθe) as an alternative to latitude, which reduces the noise from synoptic variability in the APO cycles. We find a larger seasonal amplitude of APO inventory in the Southern Hemisphere relative to the Northern Hemisphere, and a larger amplitude in high latitudes (lowMθe) relative to low latitudes (highMθe) within each hemisphere. With a box model, we invert the seasonal changes in APO inventory to yield estimates of air‐sea flux cycles at the hemispheric scale. We found a larger seasonal net outgassing of APO in the Southern Hemisphere (518 ± 52.6 Tmol) than in the Northern Hemisphere (342 ± 52.1 Tmol). Differences in APO phasing and amplitude between the hemispheres suggest distinct physical and biogeochemical mechanisms driving the air‐sea O2fluxes, such as fall outgassing of photosynthetic O2in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly associated with the formation of the seasonal subsurface shallow oxygen maximum. We compare our estimates with four model‐ and observation‐based products, identifying key limitations in these products or in the tools used to create them. 
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  3. null (Ed.)
    Abstract. We introduce a transformed isentropic coordinate Mθe,defined as the dry air mass under a given equivalent potential temperaturesurface (θe) within a hemisphere. Like θe, thecoordinate Mθe follows the synoptic distortions of theatmosphere but, unlike θe, has a nearly fixedrelationship with latitude and altitude over the seasonal cycle. Calculationof Mθe is straightforward from meteorological fields. Usingobservations from the recent HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) and Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) airborne campaigns, we map theCO2 seasonal cycle as a function of pressure and Mθe, whereMθe is thereby effectively used as an alternative tolatitude. We show that the CO2 seasonal cycles are more constantas a function of pressure using Mθe as the horizontal coordinatecompared to latitude. Furthermore, short-term variability inCO2 relative to the mean seasonal cycle is also smaller when the dataare organized by Mθe and pressure than when organized by latitudeand pressure. We also present a method using Mθe to computemass-weighted averages of CO2 on a hemispheric scale. Using this methodwith the same airborne data and applying corrections for limited coverage,we resolve the average CO2 seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere(mass-weighted tropospheric climatological average for 2009–2018), yieldingan amplitude of 7.8 ± 0.14 ppm and a downward zero-crossing on Julianday 173 ± 6.1 (i.e., late June). Mθe may be similarlyuseful for mapping the distribution and computing inventories of anylong-lived chemical tracer. 
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  4. The Southern Ocean plays an important role in determining atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), yet estimates of air-sea CO 2 flux for the region diverge widely. In this study, we constrained Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 exchange by relating fluxes to horizontal and vertical CO 2 gradients in atmospheric transport models and applying atmospheric observations of these gradients to estimate fluxes. Aircraft-based measurements of the vertical atmospheric CO 2 gradient provide robust flux constraints. We found an annual mean flux of –0.53 ± 0.23 petagrams of carbon per year (net uptake) south of 45°S during the period 2009–2018. This is consistent with the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates and surface-ocean partial pressure of CO 2 ( P co 2 )–based products, but our data indicate stronger annual mean uptake than suggested by recent interpretations of profiling float observations. 
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  5. Despite the need for researchers to understand terrestrial biospheric carbon fluxes to account for carbon cycle feedbacks and predict future CO2 concentrations, knowledge of these fluxes at the regional scale remains poor. This is particularly true in mountainous areas, where complex meteorology and lack of observations lead to large uncertainties in carbon fluxes. Yet mountainous regions are often where significant forest cover and biomass are found – i.e., areas that have the potential to serve as carbon sinks. As CO2 observations are carried out in mountainous areas, it is imperative that they are properly interpreted to yield information about carbon fluxes. In this paper, we present CO2 observations at three sites in the mountains of the western US, along with atmospheric simulations that attempt to extract information about biospheric carbon fluxes from the CO2 observations, with emphasis on the observed and simulated diurnal cycles of CO2. We show that atmospheric models can systematically simulate the wrong diurnal cycle and significantly misinterpret the CO2 observations, due to erroneous atmospheric flows as a result of terrain that is misrepresented in the model. This problem depends on the selected vertical level in the model and is exacerbated as the spatial resolution is degraded, and our results indicate that a fine grid spacing of ∼ 4 km or less may be needed to simulate a realistic diurnal cycle of CO2 for sites on top of the steep mountains examined here in the American Rockies. In the absence of higher resolution models, we recommend coarse-scale models to focus on assimilating afternoon CO2 observations on mountaintop sites over the continent to avoid misrepresentations of nocturnal transport and influence. 
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  6. Abstract. The Southern Ocean is highly under-sampled for the purpose of assessing total carbon uptake and its variability. Since this region dominates the mean global ocean sink for anthropogenic carbon, understanding temporal change is critical. Underway measurements of pCO2 collected as part of the Drake Passage Time-series (DPT) program that began in 2002 inform our understanding of seasonally changing air–sea gradients in pCO2, and by inference the carbon flux in this region. Here, we utilize available pCO2 observations to evaluate how the seasonal cycle, interannual variability, and long-term trends in surface ocean pCO2 in the Drake Passage region compare to that of the broader subpolar Southern Ocean. Our results indicate that the Drake Passage is representative of the broader region in both seasonality and long-term pCO2 trends, as evident through the agreement of timing and amplitude of seasonal cycles as well as trend magnitudes both seasonally and annually. The high temporal density of sampling by the DPT is critical to constraining estimates of the seasonal cycle of surface pCO2 in this region, as winter data remain sparse in areas outside of the Drake Passage. An increase in winter data would aid in reduction of uncertainty levels. On average over the period 2002–2016, data show that carbon uptake has strengthened with annual surface ocean pCO2 trends in the Drake Passage and the broader subpolar Southern Ocean less than the global atmospheric trend. Analysis of spatial correlation shows Drake Passage pCO2 to be representative of pCO2 and its variability up to several hundred kilometers away from the region. We also compare DPT data from 2016 and 2017 to contemporaneous pCO2 estimates from autonomous biogeochemical floats deployed as part of the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling project (SOCCOM) so as to highlight the opportunity for evaluating data collected on autonomous observational platforms. Though SOCCOM floats sparsely sample the Drake Passage region for 2016–2017 compared to the Drake Passage Time-series, their pCO2 estimates fall within the range of underway observations given the uncertainty on the estimates. Going forward, continuation of the Drake Passage Time-series will reduce uncertainties in Southern Ocean carbon uptake seasonality, variability, and trends, and provide an invaluable independent dataset for post-deployment assessment of sensors on autonomous floats. Together, these datasets will vastly increase our ability to monitor change in the ocean carbon sink. 
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  7. null (Ed.)
    Abstract Wintertime episodes of high aerosol concentrations occur frequently in urban and agricultural basins and valleys worldwide. These episodes often arise following development of persistent cold-air pools (PCAPs) that limit mixing and modify chemistry. While field campaigns targeting either basin meteorology or wintertime pollution chemistry have been conducted, coupling between interconnected chemical and meteorological processes remains an insufficiently studied research area. Gaps in understanding the coupled chemical-meteorological interactions that drive high pollution events make identification of the most effective air-basin specific emission control strategies challenging. To address this, a September 2019 workshop occurred with the goal of planning a future research campaign to investigate air quality in Western U.S. basins. Approximately 120 people participated, representing 50 institutions and 5 countries. Workshop participants outlined the rationale and design for a comprehensive wintertime study that would couple atmospheric chemistry and boundary-layer and complex-terrain meteorology within western U.S. basins. Participants concluded the study should focus on two regions with contrasting aerosol chemistry: three populated valleys within Utah (Salt Lake, Utah, and Cache Valleys) and the San Joaquin Valley in California. This paper describes the scientific rationale for a campaign that will acquire chemical and meteorological datasets using airborne platforms with extensive range, coupled to surface-based measurements focusing on sampling within the near-surface boundary layer, and transport and mixing processes within this layer, with high vertical resolution at a number of representative sites. No prior wintertime basin-focused campaign has provided the breadth of observations necessary to characterize the meteorological-chemical linkages outlined here, nor to validate complex processes within coupled atmosphere-chemistry models. 
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  8. Cloud phase and relative humidity (RH) distributions at −67° to 0°C over the Southern Ocean during austral summer are compared between in situ airborne observations and global climate simulations. A scale-aware comparison is conducted using horizontally averaged observations from 0.1 to 50 km. Cloud phase frequencies, RH distributions, and liquid mass fraction are found to be less affected by horizontal resolutions than liquid and ice water content (LWC and IWC, respectively), liquid and ice number concentrations (Ncliqand Ncice, respectively), and ice supersaturation (ISS) frequency. At −10° to 0°C, observations show 27%–34% and 17%–37% of liquid and mixed phases, while simulations show 60%–70% and 3%–4%, respectively. Simulations overestimate (underestimate) LWC and Ncliqin liquid (mixed) phase, overestimate Ncicein mixed phase, underestimate IWC in ice and mixed phases, and underestimate (overestimate) liquid mass fraction below (above) −5°C, indicating that observational constraints are needed for different cloud phases. RH frequently occurs at liquid saturation in liquid and mixed phases for all datasets, yet the observed RH in ice phase can deviate from liquid saturation by up to 20%–40% at −20° to 0°C, indicating that the model assumption of liquid saturation for coexisting ice and liquid is inaccurate for low liquid mass fractions (<0.1). Simulations lack RH variability for partial cloud fractions (0.1–0.9) and underestimate (overestimate) ISS frequency for cloud fraction <0.1 (≥0.6), implying that improving RH subgrid-scale parameterizations may be a viable path to account for small-scale processes that affect RH and cloud phase heterogeneities. Two sets of simulations (nudged and free-running) show very similar results (except for ISS frequency) regardless of sample sizes, corroborating the statistical robustness of the model–observation comparisons. 
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